Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 11.637695 13.063773 14.701117 16.745289 19.265902 22.323734 26.397876
2024-10-13 9.591437 11.238707 13.267916 16.018727 19.765297 24.882697 32.794100
2024-10-20 8.261623 9.936091 12.090963 15.172771 19.666750 26.363467 38.028067
2024-10-27 7.338326 8.991281 11.186873 14.455060 19.480412 27.521254 43.075345
2024-11-03 7.386600 9.309219 11.990665 16.244988 23.391859 36.367462 67.196143
2024-11-10 7.142865 9.182743 12.129006 17.030647 25.854755 43.672343 95.202646
2024-11-17 6.566938 8.521569 11.392015 16.278966 25.387718 44.843107 107.952751
2024-11-24 6.217238 8.158492 11.067012 16.160888 26.079248 48.880654 136.030226
2024-12-01 5.905172 7.824331 10.750463 16.005506 26.653080 52.907542 172.321876
2024-12-08 5.663730 7.577297 10.546685 16.018171 27.577020 58.358700 232.150383
2024-12-15 5.484146 7.410817 10.455921 16.221992 28.970723 66.057611 346.265858
2024-12-22 5.201221 7.064325 10.036724 15.745188 28.674596 68.169416 428.120610
2024-12-29 4.999139 6.848950 9.847982 15.750484 29.702827 76.351329 722.840420
2025-01-05 4.709689 6.477675 9.365028 15.111983 28.970851 77.394470 941.664760
2025-01-12 4.423954 6.097892 8.842761 14.340579 27.749133 75.806193 1088.929844
2025-01-19 4.178100 5.771470 8.394823 13.682461 26.726111 74.710569 1298.833816
2025-01-26 4.290142 6.033815 9.003839 15.321845 32.561935 114.140302 NaN
2025-02-02 4.257828 6.052918 9.173829 16.038599 36.047365 150.412114 NaN
2025-02-09 4.051592 5.766550 8.754926 15.352882 34.730081 148.083157 NaN
2025-02-16 3.929787 5.619159 8.589333 15.245027 35.392184 165.150937 NaN
2025-02-23 3.812151 5.473404 8.417443 15.103037 35.908764 183.031275 NaN
2025-03-02 3.719661 5.366837 8.313814 15.114613 37.012634 212.142410 NaN
2025-03-09 3.651868 5.299955 8.282411 15.300846 38.877956 261.848886 NaN